On December 7, Boeing Japan gave a presentation on the commercial aircraft market in Northeast Asia. The presentation was led by Darren Hulst, Vice President of Commercial Aircraft Markets.
Compared to pre-Corona (2019), the global passenger aircraft market has recovered to 93% of the number of aircraft in operation, 80% of the number of flights, and 74% of the number of passengers. Looking at those passengers by region, Europe and North America reached a high of 84% and 96%, respectively, as of October, while Asia and Oceania reached 47%, less than half, but if we go into the breakdown of that Asia, we find that Asia-Pacific, excluding China, has also recovered to 81% of flights.
In the past, global GDP and RPKs (paid passenger kilometers, a measure of seat sales) have grown almost without a hitch, even in the face of the global financial crisis triggered by 9/11 (2001) and the Lehman Brothers collapse (2008), but the new Corona pandemic (2020-2021 ), RPKs in particular have taken an unprecedented hit, with traffic finally returning to 65-75% of pre-Corona levels in 2022.
Mr. Hulst pointed out that what he has learned in the three years since the Corona disaster is that the airline industry is resilient, but is strongly affected by government restrictions, and that when regulations are relaxed, demand recovers rapidly and the airline industry cannot keep up. In particular, the latter is true of the airline industry, which has been unable to restore or resume flights due to the departure of airline personnel from the industry as a result of the Corona disaster and the lack of ground staff and other operations.
The Japanese market is expected to recover rapidly for international flights over the next nine months, following the recovery of domestic flights, which were the first to recover. North America, Oceania, and the Middle East are expected to recover to pre-Corona levels, followed by Asia (excluding China) and Europe.
Boeing regularly releases its “Aircraft Demand for the Next 20 Years,” and Mr. Hulst explained that the company expects to need 41,170 commercial aircraft over the next 20 years, with single-aisle aircraft accounting for 75% (30,880 aircraft), twin-aisle aircraft 18% (7,230 aircraft), regional jets 5% (2,120 aircraft), twin-aisle aircraft Regional jets will account for 5% (2,120 aircraft), and cargo aircraft will account for 2% (940 aircraft) (excluding China for APAC).
The Corona Disaster showed that “airlines want aircraft that cost less and have higher capabilities. Boeing’s long-term strategy is to focus on the 737, 787, and 777 aircraft”.
In single-aisle aircraft, the 737 MAX family resumed operations in December 2020, with over 780 aircraft currently in operation and 49 companies having completed their introductions. Cumulative flight time is over 2.7 million hours.
Over the past two years, 1,361 aircraft have been sold and 561 have been delivered. Closer to home for the Japanese, ANA has signed a final purchase contract for 30 737-8s (20 confirmed and 10 optional), and Skymark has also signed a lease agreement for six 737-8s, and has agreed with Boeing to order six more 737-8s and a 737-10.
Mr. Hulst noted that 92% of airlines have single-aisle aircraft of two or more sizes (e.g., 737-8 and 737-9), and the current trend is the increasing number of orders for 737-10 and 737-7 aircraft, making the 737 MAX family an important part of the Asian airline fleet He pointed out. In fact, 30% of the orders are from Asian airlines.
In his explanation, he repeatedly mentioned “Versatility” and said that the introduction of a family of passenger aircraft (such as the 737 MAX) will contribute to airlines’ costs (crew training, aircraft maintenance, etc.) and that “aircraft will continue to be indispensable for the world’s economic development. Aircraft will continue to be indispensable to the world’s economic development,” he said.
© Source travel watch
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