As the world’s population grows, the number of tourists will also increase, and airline demand is expected to double from the current level in 20 years According to UN data, the world population will reach 8 billion in November 2022, and the population is expected to continue to grow, especially in Asia and Africa, reaching approximately 8.5 to 8.6 billion in 2030 and 9.4 to 10.1 billion by 2050. The world’s population is expected to reach approximately 8.5-8.6 billion by 2030 and 9.4-10.1 billion by 2050. Along with population growth, the number of international tourists worldwide is also increasing, reaching 1.46 billion in 2019, albeit before Corona, according to data from the UNWTO (United Nations World Tourism Organization). He explained that it is also worth mentioning that the growth of international tourism income over the last 10 years has exceeded the GDP growth rate over the same period. The number of international tourists is expected to continue to grow and reach 1.8 billion around 2030. As the number of tourists increases worldwide, demand for air travel also continues to grow proportionally. According to a forecast released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in June 2022, the number of air passengers worldwide will recover rapidly from the Corona Disaster and reach 7.8 billion in the next 20 years, approximately double the 2019 figure. Of these, Asia is expected to have the highest growth rate by area, with demand expected to increase more than 2.5 times over 2019 in the next 20 years. Demand between North America and Asia, where demand is currently high, is expected to increase from approximately 31.05 million passengers in 2019 to 52.47 million in 2040, a 1.7-fold increase, creating approximately 21 million new passenger flows over the next 20 years. He also explained that the increase in demand is due to the growing market share of LCCs and improvements in aircraft performance. As an example, the Airbus A320 series, which is widely used by LCCs, has a range of 5950-6300 km (manufacturer’s catalog values) for the standard type, while the A321neo (LR) has an extended range of approximately 7400 km, and the further enhanced A321neo (XLR) can fly approximately The A321neo (LR) has an extended range of approximately 7,400 km, and the further enhanced A321neo (XLR) has a range of approximately 8,700 km.
Passenger traffic at Narita Airport is also increasing, but its market share is significantly decreasing Similar to the global trend, airline demand in Japan, including at Narita Airport, is increasing year by year. Although Japan’s population peaked in 2008 and has been declining since then, both the number of domestic passengers and the number of Japanese departing Japan before Corona have shown an increasing trend, and since around 2013, there has also been a significant increase in the number of inbound passengers to Japan, attracting many tourists to Japan. Data from the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) shows that Japan’s presence in the international travel market has improved even further, with Japan’s ranking in the Tourism Competitiveness and Tourism Development Index ranking from 22nd in 2011 to 9th in 2015, 4th in 2019, and 1st in 2021. Against this backdrop, the government and NAA forecast that airline demand at Narita Airport will exceed 300,000 departures and arrivals per year in the 2020s and reach 500,000 per year from the early 2030s to the late 2040s. He also explained that for international flights, Narita Airport has the largest number of weekly flights operated by major airlines. On the other hand, as demand increases, there is a problem of insufficient slots for departures and arrivals, and there are times (14:00-18:00) when the airport is not able to meet the demand for flights from airlines. There is also the harsh reality that although the North American and Asian transfer markets are growing overall, they are losing market share to competing airports such as Hong Kong, Taoyuan (Taipei), and Incheon (Seoul). The decline in market share can also be read in the airport rankings of international passenger volume published by the Airports Council International (ACI): 8th in 2000 (26.6 million passengers), 7th in 2005 (30.31 million passengers), 10th in 2010 (32.16 million passengers), 17th in 2015 (30.55 million passengers), and 18th in 2019 ( 36.65 million), down to 36.65 million. The ranking of competing airports in 2019 is Hong Kong in fourth place (71.42 million passengers), Incheon in fifth place (70.61 million passengers), and Taoyuan in tenth place (48.69 million passengers). Incidentally, Dubai (86.4 million) is ranked No. 1 in 2019, overtaking London (Heathrow), which has been No. 1 for many years since 2015. In light of this situation, he reiterated the need to begin strengthening the airport’s functions as soon as possible, with the aim of making it an international hub airport that will capture not only demand from and to the Tokyo metropolitan area, but also tri-national flows, including Asia, and demand for connecting international and domestic flights.
Requirements for a potential site for a one-terminal construction site are also explained There are many issues facing Narita Airport today, and many users, airlines, and related businesses have voiced their dissatisfaction with the airport. There is a mountain of issues that need to be resolved, such as the layout of facilities since the opening of the airport, aging existing facilities, insufficient handling capacity, labor shortages, and inefficient facilities. In addition, it is imperative to respond to the increasing number of natural disasters and to work toward decarbonization that will lead to a sustainable society. The best solution to these issues is the “one terminal” concept. The layout of passenger terminals can be divided into two types: “centralized one-terminal” and “distributed unit terminal. Istanbul, Beijing Daxing, Schiphol, and Denver were cited as examples of “one-aggregated terminals,” while Heathrow, New York (JFK), Los Angeles, Changi, and Dubai were introduced as examples of “distributed unit terminals” (three or more terminals). Airports with two terminals that fall in between were Incheon, Hong Kong, Taoyuan, and Frankfurt. He explained that the reason why NAA is aiming for a single terminal is because of the advantages of a single terminal in light of the general situation surrounding the passenger business, the ideal state of Narita Airport, and the challenges faced by existing facilities. The reason is that by consolidating the terminals, the total floor space can be made 10 to 1.5 percent more compact, enabling more efficient operations. From the customer’s perspective, another advantage is simplicity and ease of understanding. In addition, the company claims that the consolidation will also reduce environmental impact. On the other hand, there is also a concern that the one-terminals will increase travel distance. To address this issue, flights of the same airline alliance will be assigned to a single area to shorten the walking distance when transferring, and appropriate mobility aids will be provided for each purpose when moving around the terminal. He also explained that the terminal will be designed in such a way that it can be partially closed and still be operational in case it needs to be renovated in the future, by having a structure consisting of multiple units. As for where the new passenger terminal will be built, he explained the requirements for its placement. The four requirements are: “the location must be balanced with the runway layout,” “a somewhat coherent area can be secured,” “phased development is possible while continuing the operation of the existing terminal,” and “access functions (rail and road) can be connected. The requirements seem to narrow down the candidate sites considerably, but at this stage the location of the candidate construction site was not stated.
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