However, it is an old-fashioned human tendency to wonder whether we should rely solely on such technological gadgets. Besides, it is convenient to make a rough estimate of your schedule without having to pull out your PC or smartphone every time you need to go to a train station, and to be able to say, “It will take me about how long to get there, so I should leave around what time. This is why I always use the “one station, two minutes rule. However, this rule is only applicable in metropolitan areas and nearby areas where the distance between stations is in the 1 km range. In addition, it should be noted that the distance between stations on JR lines is often longer than those on private railways and subways. In large metropolitan areas, trains run frequently, so there is an advantage in being able to board a train without having to check the timetable every time. Therefore, before the spread of route search services, not many people would have looked up the timetable before boarding a train. In such a situation, using this “one station, two minutes rule” to estimate the time required can be used as a reference to determine a rough departure time. In other words, it is like the “calculate the time required to walk 80 meters per minute” used by the real estate industry to indicate the time required to get to a station. Although this is not a topic for railroads, the author also estimates the time required for expressway travel at a speed of 1.5 km per minute. If converted to mph, this would be an average of 90 km/h. This is a little slower than the actual driving speed, but it is not surprising because sometimes a slower car can hold your head up.
Let’s look at a concrete example. For example, take the Yamanote Line outbound from Tokyo Station to Tamachi Station. The stations on the way are Yurakucho, Shinbashi, Hamamatsucho, and Tamachi. Then, it would take 4 stations x 2 minutes = 8 minutes. However, when we check the timetable published by JR East, we find that the difference between the departure time from Tokyo Station and that from Tamachi Station is 9 minutes, which is one minute longer than the estimated time. This is one minute longer than the estimated value, but this may be due to the slightly longer distance (1.5 km) between Hamamatsucho and Tamachi stations. Also, since the number at Tamachi Station is the departure time, it is necessary to subtract the time the train stops at Tamachi Station. However, this is only a few tens of seconds. As shown above, there can be discrepancies depending on the distance between stations. Also, if a train passes through a station on the way, the time required will be reduced by that amount. However, from experience, we believe that “one station, two minutes” is not far off the standard. However, trains do not always arrive as soon as you get on the platform, so the actual time required is “the interval between trains + the number of stations x 2 minutes. If the interval between trains is 5 minutes and there are 4 stations to the destination station, the maximum time is “5 minutes + 4 stations x 2 minutes = 13 minutes. If the actual waiting time is shorter than the maximum, the train will arrive earlier than expected. However, it is better to arrive early than late, so it is safer to estimate a longer time.
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