In order to achieve further economic growth, Japan will need about four times as many foreign workers in 2040 as in 2020. On the occasion of World Population Day on July 11, we will trace the pages of this report.
In 2040, Japan will be short 420,000 foreign workers relative to demand
The “Survey and Research Report on Efforts to Realize a Society in Harmony with Foreign Residents in 2030/40,” released in March by JICA’s Sadako Ogata Peace and Development Institute, presents the results of two main studies.
The first is a simulation of the future acceptance of foreign nationals. Based on forecasts of demographic and industrial structural changes and labor markets in Japan and in countries that send out foreign workers, we estimated the number of foreign nationals to be accepted in Japan as of 2030 and 2040, among other things. The other is a study and analysis of how to coexist with foreigners in future regions in line with changes in industry and society, based on the current situation surrounding foreigners in Japan and the projected results of the number of people to be accepted.
The results of these studies have revealed the following figures for Japan in 2040: “There will be a shortage of 420,000 foreign workers relative to demand,” and “In nine prefectures, the ratio of foreign workers to the working-age population will exceed 10 percent.
From the research report, Supply-Demand Gap for Foreign Workers. The number of foreign workers coming to Japan is estimated taking into account the future demographic and economic level of the sending country and past trends in the number of arrivals; in 2040, the supply potential of foreign workers is 6.32 million compared to the demand of 6.74 million, resulting in a projected shortage of 420,000 workers.
From the research report, the number of foreign workers (as a percentage of the working-age population) in 2040; only Tokyo will exceed 10% in 2030, but in 2040, in addition to Tokyo, nine prefectures, including the Tokai region, will exceed 10%. Demand for foreign workers in the manufacturing, wholesale/retail, and construction industries is high, in that order.
While there have been individual analyses of domestic labor demand and international labor force, this is believed to be the first survey and study to present such comprehensive and specific figures.
The report contains a variety of figures, but the main message of the report is that this is a good opportunity to start a discussion about accepting foreigners based on concrete figures,” said Hitoshi Fujika, Senior Researcher at the Sadako Ogata Institute for Peace and Development, JICA. The significance of the report is that we can start the discussion based on concrete figures regarding the acceptance of foreign nationals.
There are diverse opinions about accepting foreign workers. Some are heard to say, “Couldn’t the Japanese alone achieve growth?” However, the results of this study, taking into account the social advancement of women and the elderly in Japan, show with tangible data that it is essential for Japan, whose working-age population continues to decline, to create a society in which Japanese and foreigners work together to achieve growth as a nation.
We really didn’t want to use the word ‘foreigners’ in our research report,” said Senior Researcher Fujika. “We didn’t want to use the word ‘foreigners’ in the report because it would make a clear distinction from the Japanese. We need to recognize that foreigners are not relative to each other, but that we are all working together to create a society.
Cultivation of key persons to bridge the gap between foreigners and Japanese residents is important.
The research report also indicates issues such as the lack of a well established support system for local governments that accept foreign workers. One approach to solving these issues is to “develop key persons” for both foreigners and Japanese who support a multicultural society.
The initiative in Oizumi Town, Gunma Prefecture, where many foreign workers have settled for long periods of time, is a distinctive example. Cultural interpreters” who serve as bridges between foreign residents and Japanese residents and a team of foreign volunteers serve as key persons to support the effective communication of information and various types of support. In the future, it is also expected that foreign residents will actively participate in the local community and become leaders of the community.
JICA concluded a comprehensive partnership agreement with Gunma Prefecture last December, and will continue to work together in new areas such as multicultural coexistence and co-creation.
Efforts in Oizumi Town, Gunma Prefecture. (Left) A “cultural interpreter” correctly communicates the basics of Japanese culture, such as the fundamentals of Japanese food, and the manners of daily life in their native language (Right) A team of foreign volunteers training to prepare a meal. (Right) A team of foreign volunteers training to serve as leaders of the foreign community in the event of a disaster.
Currently, half of the foreign workers in Japan come from developing countries. JICA Overseas Cooperation Volunteers who have returned to their home countries after completing on-the-ground activities in developing countries are well-suited to support the realization of a symbiotic society with foreigners in Japan.
Mr. Fujika said, “From now on, it is necessary to provide vocational training not only in Japan, but also in the sending country, and to develop human resources in the sending organization and government officials. This is JICA’s specialty in developing countries. I believe there are many things JICA can do to help Japan become a country of choice.
In order to realize a society in which people can live together with foreigners, JICA’s Sadako Ogata Peace and Development Institute plans to follow up on this survey and research report with future studies on which Asian countries’ labor forces are migrating to which countries and on the factors behind labor migration.
© Source JICA
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