New Corona Situation and Travel Movements by the End of 2023 According to the World Tourism Barometer released by the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) in November, the number of international travelers from January to September recovered to 87% of the pre-New Corona level. However, the recovery in the Asia-Pacific region, including Japan, is lagging behind that of Europe and the United States. In Japan, water border control measures will end in April 2023, and in May, the status of H1N1 coronas under the Infectious Disease Control Law was moved to Category 5, the same as seasonal influenza. This has removed institutional restrictions on travel, and the impact of nationwide travel support and local governments’ own travel support measures in some regions has led to a return of activity nationwide, coupled with a recovery in inbound travel. On the other hand, there are concerns about problems such as labor shortages in the service industry, soaring accommodation rates, and overtourism.
Economic Environment and Living Conditions Surrounding Travel In the “World Economic Outlook” released by the IMF (International Monetary Fund) in October 2023, Japan’s growth rate is projected at 2.0%, higher than the 1.0% forecast for 2022, but still a grim 1.0% forecast for 2024. Looking at the consumer price index, transportation and communications are steadily rising, and gasoline prices are now regularly around ¥170, although subsidies are holding down prices. In addition, the Bank of Japan’s “Questionnaire Survey on Lifestyle Awareness” showed that the percentage of respondents who said they are “no longer comfortable” with their current living situation has been on a consistent upward trend since September 2021, reaching 57.4% in September 2023, 21.1 percentage points higher than the September 2021 level.
The total number of overnight stays in 2023 was 398,765,000 nights from January to October, which is 113.7% of the total for the same period in 2022 and 99.3% of the total for the same period in 2019. The total number of overnight stays in 2023 was 398,765,000, 113.7% of the total for the same period in 2022, and 99.3% of the total for the same period in 2019. Regarding overseas travel, although Japan’s water border measures ended on April 29, the recovery in the number of overseas travelers has been slow due to high prices, a weak yen, and continued unrest in some regions, etc. The cumulative total for January-October was 7,649,000, 390.2% of the same period in 2022 and 45.7% of the same period in 2019. Regarding inbound travel to Japan, the recovery is gaining momentum due to the completion of Japan’s waterfront measures and the termination or easing of new corona countermeasures around the world, etc. The total for January-October was 1,991,000, 1,302.3% of the same period in 2022 and 73.9% of the same period in 2019. By country/region, the cumulative total for January-October 2023 was, in descending order, South Korea (5,526,000, 107.7% vs. same period in 2019), Taiwan (3,399,000, 81.9%), and China (1,854,000, 22.8%).
Calendar and Major Events in 2024 In 2024, there will be 11 holidays of 3 or more consecutive days, a significant increase from 2023 (7 holidays); GW will be divided into the first half (April 27-29) and the second half (May 3-6), and if you take off the days in between, it will be 10 consecutive holidays; summer vacation will be 9 consecutive holidays from August 10-18 if you take off the Obon period The summer vacation is a nine-day weekend from August 10 to 18 if the Obon period is taken off. In France, the 33rd Olympic Games are scheduled from July 26 to August 11, and the Paris 2024 Paralympic Games from August 28 to September 8, to be held in several cities around Paris and in Tahiti. In Japan, the Hokuriku Shinkansen line between Kanazawa and Tsuruga stations will open on March 16, and in Toyama Prefecture’s Kurobe Gorge, the Kurobe-Unazuki Canyon Route connecting Kurobe Dam and Kurobe Gorge Railway’s Keyakidaira Station will open to the public on June 30. Regarding theme parks, Universal Studios Japan plans to open “Donkey Kong Country” in the spring, expanding the space of “Super Nintendo World” by 1.7 times. At Tokyo DisneySea, the new theme port “Fantasy Springs” will open, consisting of three areas themed on “Anna and the Snow Queen,” “Rapunzel on the Tower,” and “Peter Pan” and a new Disney hotel, the Tokyo DisneySea Fantasy Springs Hotel. In commercial facilities, part of the “Grand Green Osaka” redevelopment project underway around Osaka Station is scheduled to open in advance in September. In Nagoya City, Aichi Prefecture, the Chunichi Building, which was closed and rebuilt in 2019 due to aging, will have its grand opening in the spring, and in Matsuyama City, Ehime Prefecture, the Dogo Onsen main building will reopen in mid-July for the first time in five years. As for lodging facilities, Daiwa Resort will open 12 existing Daiwa Royal Hotels under the “Grand Mercure” brand for the first time in Japan and 11 hotels under the “Mercure” brand simultaneously nationwide on April 1. In addition, “Banyan Tree Higashiyama Kyoto” is scheduled to open in the spring in Kyoto City, and “Osaka Station Hotel” in KITTE Osaka, which is scheduled to open in July in Osaka City.
Trends in Overseas Travel We estimate that the number of overseas travelers in 2024 will be 14.5 million, average spending will be 342,100 yen, the highest since 2000 due to the weak yen and high overseas prices, and overseas travel spending will be 4.96 trillion yen. Although Japan’s waterfront measures have been completed, the recovery in the number of overseas travelers will be gradual due to economic factors as well as unstable international conditions, and it is expected that the number will not return to the pre-New Corona level until after 2025. In the aforementioned survey, Hawaii was the most popular destination for future overseas travel “soon,” followed by Europe, Australia/New Zealand, Taiwan, the U.S. mainland, South Korea, and Guam/Saipan. While there is a tendency to divide respondents into distant and nearby areas, and positive responses are seen, there are also indications that economic and other factors are hindering their travel.
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