Guerrilla thunderstorms peak in mid-August. About the same as last year, but expected to be less in northern Japan.

Weathernews released “Guerrilla Thunderstorm Trends 2024.

Guerrilla thunderstorms are expected to occur approximately 87,000 times nationwide from July to September 2024, about the same number as last year, but more than the average of the past five years.

Northern Japan, especially Hokkaido and Aomori Prefecture, is expected to experience less than half the number of outbreaks as last year, while eastern and western Japan are expected to remain on par with last year.

This season’s guerrilla downpours are expected to peak in mid-August, increase from late July, when the rainy season ends, and come to an end from mid-September.

In August, the Pacific High overlaps with the Tibetan High near Japan, which makes it easier for temperatures to rise and suppresses the occurrence of thunderstorms, but when the high weakens in mid-August, moist air tends to flow in, causing guerrilla thunderstorms to occur.

The company urges people to “check the latest rainfall information from time to time” because there are concerns that a single guerrilla downpour may cause various damages, such as flooding and inundation due to heavy rain, power outages due to lightning strikes, and disruption of transportation systems.

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